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They're Doing It Wrong
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so that's what stupid looks like."Dazed and Confused"
Recycle, re-use, re-purpose
Plant a tree
Take a kid hiking
Make a difference -
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Drybones wrote:
Any bets on how far he makes it?
My guess is Neels Gap in 5 days and then at least a week break before he restarts with a more thought out gear list.Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
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Astro wrote:
If you giving odds I would take the long shot. But I would also think that he will spend more money and take more time than he has planned.
Everyone does.
Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
OzJacko wrote:
Astro wrote:
If you giving odds I would take the long shot. But I would also think that he will spend more money and take more time than he has planned.
The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
Richard Ewell, CSA General -
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Rasty wrote:
How do we know he isn't fully prepared?
"Dazed and Confused"
Recycle, re-use, re-purpose
Plant a tree
Take a kid hiking
Make a difference -
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jimmyjam wrote:
Rasty wrote:
How do we know he isn't fully prepared?
He's not wearing cold weather gear so presumably that's in pack.
My guess he has far too little gear.Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
OzJacko wrote:
jimmyjam wrote:
Rasty wrote:
How do we know he isn't fully prepared?
My guess he has far too little gear.
Lost in the right direction. -
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Drybones wrote:
Any bets on how far he makes it?
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OzJacko wrote:
jimmyjam wrote:
Rasty wrote:
How do we know he isn't fully prepared?
My guess he has far too little gear.
Sometimes you will never know the value of a moment until it becomes a memory.
Dr. Seuss -
I know he didn't need to wear cold gear. Just pointing out that is some bulk that must be in his pack.
The pack has some odd stuff poking up but doesn't seem huge. Tipi Walter he isn't.
So I'm just guessing he may find himself short on gear. This will add to push to go to towns.
We're just speculating Wolf. Whiteblaze is where we'd go to say all this to him. If he comes in here he won't get ridiculed but he might then get a pithy barb from someone.Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
i took a look at the 15 day (what a joke) weather forecast for suches (woody gap; highest city in georgia) and the lowest low is 27 degrees. 13 of the 15 days the low is in the 30s and 40s.
we have no way of knowing what he is carrying, but if he was lucky he'd have a nite of 10 degrees and snow before he reached neels gap. then if his gear is inadequate he'd find out before he reached the gsmnp where he could really get in trouble and upgrade at mountain crossings.
seriously, the weather forecast calls for snow on january 13. in the morning.2,000 miler -
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Trebor wrote:
I'm pretty sure that the object behind his head is a bear vault. It's on its side and we are looking at the lid
Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
OzJacko wrote:
Trebor wrote:
I'm pretty sure that the object behind his head is a bear vault. It's on its side and we are looking at the lid
Lost in the right direction. -
Hey Rasty.
Can you cut all our speculation out of this thread and throw it in the cafe section - maybe called 2016 hikers????.
We should probably leave this thread more a roll call than a place to appraise their expertise levels.Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
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Hard yo judge on just a photo. Of the people that started with me one woman had blisters so bad by woody gap she called a trail angel to get her. She downsized at Neels & ended up being the only other one that finished.
Several people plan to start out on the 1st so he will have some company. -
Da Wolf wrote:
judgin' books by the covers
But we're not doing it to the authors.
We leave that for TOS.
It's a valid pastime for grumpy old men (and some others) to do that on the internet.
I have seen lots of people who make it that you would never expect. I'm sure Grandma Gatewood would have been a great example if the internet had been around.
For what it's worth I will give you my full assessment based on photo.
Age and physical appearance - someone who is motivated by a "change of life" event. Unemployment or family tragedy or illness etc. This group has a fairly high success rate.
The passport and newness of gear suggests newbie. This group has a so so success rate.
The bear canister suggests a lack of local knowledge but a goodish budget. These two balance out to an okay success rate.
The trail name suggests someone inspired by the adventure. This group has a low success rate when cold hard reality sets in.
The start date suggests someone who wants to be notable. This group has a low success rate.
Satisfied Wolf.
I have totally judged him by his cover.
My prediction overall.
20% chance of making Katahdin. None in under 6 months.
If he makes it it will change him forever.
If he makes Damascus it will have changed him enough.Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
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jimmyjam wrote:
Rasty wrote:
How do we know he isn't fully prepared?
I may grow old but I'll never grow up. -
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he must be really planning low mileage days since the bear vault requirement doesn't start til march 1.
actually, someone wrote on facebook a while ago that the ATC "recommended" using a bear vault from springer to ? (damascus? don't remember but it was quite a distance). i went to the ATC site but could not confirm this statement.2,000 miler -
Da Wolf wrote:
comin' from a nonfinisher
But I finished -my way.
I'm sorry your criteria for respect are so limiting.
Perhaps having come so close to not finishing I have a different perspective.Resident Australian, proving being a grumpy old man is not just an American trait. -
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One thing about the cafe...we passionately support AT hikers. That has been proven over and over.
I see nothing wrong with discussing a hikers choices and gear in a respectful manner.Lost in the right direction. -
TrafficJam wrote:
Da Wolf wrote:
comin' from a nonfinisher
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Trebor wrote:
Everybody is having a little fun and wolf shows up and craps in the pool......
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