Regarding Tip 63: Business Cycle vs AT Thru-hike timing from Datto's Tips v2.0 --
The Fed jumped interest rates a small amount this afternoon (about as expected) and also disclosed tentative plans to jump the interest rate three times during 2017 instead of the previous plans to jump two times. Overall reaction was somewhat muted. Interesting the Fed chairwoman indicated the Fed thinks a stimulus package proposed by the next administration may not be necessary and that we're already close to full employment anyhow. Auto sales (from showrooms) reporting were down slightly earlier today but probably just a plateauing of gangbuster auto sales in recent quarters.
Feb 1, 2017 will be the next important date (the next Fed meeting results made public along with the second monthly ISM number for 2017).
Post election economics are starting to look cautiously good so far for 2017 but increasing the number of upcoming rate hikes smacks of the economy being in the 4th quarter of the business cycle. The 4th quarter can drift for a long time (more than a year barring a bad event happening). If I were a prospective 2017 northbound AT thru-hiker I would still be in the midst of getting well-prepared for starting north from Springer Mountain in Spring 2017 but remaining cautious about the economy/thru-hike start decision until more is known after the holidays.
As said in Datto's Tips v2.0 and previously here, the reason why this is important (the business cycle vs AT thru-hike timing) is you don't want to return from your AT thru-hike in October/November 2017 to find the economy is going downhill -- that would make getting a job Post AT much more difficult.
Datto
The Fed jumped interest rates a small amount this afternoon (about as expected) and also disclosed tentative plans to jump the interest rate three times during 2017 instead of the previous plans to jump two times. Overall reaction was somewhat muted. Interesting the Fed chairwoman indicated the Fed thinks a stimulus package proposed by the next administration may not be necessary and that we're already close to full employment anyhow. Auto sales (from showrooms) reporting were down slightly earlier today but probably just a plateauing of gangbuster auto sales in recent quarters.
Feb 1, 2017 will be the next important date (the next Fed meeting results made public along with the second monthly ISM number for 2017).
Post election economics are starting to look cautiously good so far for 2017 but increasing the number of upcoming rate hikes smacks of the economy being in the 4th quarter of the business cycle. The 4th quarter can drift for a long time (more than a year barring a bad event happening). If I were a prospective 2017 northbound AT thru-hiker I would still be in the midst of getting well-prepared for starting north from Springer Mountain in Spring 2017 but remaining cautious about the economy/thru-hike start decision until more is known after the holidays.
As said in Datto's Tips v2.0 and previously here, the reason why this is important (the business cycle vs AT thru-hike timing) is you don't want to return from your AT thru-hike in October/November 2017 to find the economy is going downhill -- that would make getting a job Post AT much more difficult.
Datto
The post was edited 4 times, last by Datto ().