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Likelihood over time of very unlikely event? I have a question...

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    • Likelihood over time of very unlikely event? I have a question...

      I'm new to this forum. Although an avid outdoorsman and hike whenever there's an opportunity I doubt I'm in the class of most serious hikers. Through hikers, section hikers, etc.
      I have another wilderness topic based on personal experience. I've encountered Bigfoot on 5 occasions. It's more they they encountered me. Not the other way around.
      None of the experiences were pleasant but I'm still here.

      My question is: what's the likelihood over time of an unlikely event? Encountering Bigfoot. I'm geared more towards science and logic than conjecture and speculation. If you're interested in providing data towards this question. You can contribute at: creekdevil.com/survey.html
      It's 4 questions and strictly confidential. I would like to hear from everyone with no encounters as well as if anyone has seen one.

      Cof123
    • CreekDevil appears to be a Bigfoot researcher.
      Not sure if this should be considered Spam or not, I will leave it up here for now.

      The post did get me thinking about the guy on Whiteblaze who claimed to have some Bigfoot encounters.
      Was that Grayblazer? He seems to have disappeared some time ago.
      “Of all sad words of tongue or pen,
      the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”


      John Greenleaf Whittier
    • IMScotty wrote:

      CreekDevil appears to be a Bigfoot researcher.
      Not sure if this should be considered Spam or not, I will leave it up here for now.

      The post did get me thinking about the guy on Whiteblaze who claimed to have some Bigfoot encounters.
      Was that Grayblazer? He seems to have disappeared some time ago.
      Grayblazer was here for a while too. Just hope he didn't loose his battle with the big C.
      The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
      Richard Ewell, CSA General
    • I've seen that the new Discovery+ Streaming network has been promoting a reboot of their "Finding Bigfoot" show, which is badly named as they never actually find Bigfoot.

      The question asked was: What is the likelihood of an unlikely event happening? The answer is almost inevitable. For example, the likelihood of a person winning the Powerball Lottery is close to zero, but when the jackpot gets up to 1 billion dollars, the chance of someone winning gets close to 100% because so many tickets are purchased.

      Now let's flip the question. What's the probability of a likely event not happening? There are millions of people who tell you that a cell phone camera takes great pictures and videos. There are millions of people running around the woods with cell phone cameras. There are may (at least thousands) of people of people who claim to have seen a bigfoot. Yet there curiously are no high quality images or video of Bigfoot. Equally curious.
    • max.patch wrote:

      The self proclaimed "largest Bigfoot museum in the world" is about 10 miles N of where you turn off the highway to go to the Springer parking lot. I've never been and never will -- but those that make the pilgrimage should stop by the nearby Pink Pig BBQ for some really good onion rings.

      expeditionbigfoot.com/
      MaxPatch, this is the type of useful information people come to this site for :)
      “Of all sad words of tongue or pen,
      the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”


      John Greenleaf Whittier
    • IMScotty wrote:

      max.patch wrote:

      The self proclaimed "largest Bigfoot museum in the world" is about 10 miles N of where you turn off the highway to go to the Springer parking lot. I've never been and never will -- but those that make the pilgrimage should stop by the nearby Pink Pig BBQ for some really good onion rings.

      expeditionbigfoot.com/
      MaxPatch, this is the type of useful information people come to this site for :)
      Might consider it if I was under 5 or active military. :rolleyes:
      The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
      Richard Ewell, CSA General
    • I have looked into this subject, based on an experience I had once, but not sure what that was...

      I'm the type of person that has to see something for myself, but I do hold a very open mind towards this bigfoot phenomenon. However, I totally understand why many totally discount the possibility....the worst enemy of the bigfoot community is the bigfoot community itself. There are a lot of quacks and crazy people that make some incredible claims with absolutely no proof. If your only introduction to bigfoot is thru the media and many of the "documentaries" on cable TV, then it's very understandable how one could have utter contempt for this subject.

      I've been very impressed with Les Stroud's look into this subject, and it seems to me that his opinion has changed drastically over time after looking into this subject. Very easy to find his documentaries on the subject on youtube.

      It's difficult to discount all the Native American accounts and so many others, not usually seen in the news or on cable TV.

      Here's just one example from a guy (Kerry Arnold) that has an account that's really hard to just ignore.





      .
    • Well put RR. As a scientist, I am trained and expected to keep an open mind, but base judgements on data, recognizing all the while that 100% of all scientists are humans and thus subject to the same shortcomings as all humans, a fact that scientists and "normal people" (aka non-scientists) are often guilty of forgetting or ignoring.

      It boils down to this. Either there are large undiscovered primates living all over the planet, or thousands of people over thousands of years provide consistent reports of seeing something that isn't there. They way I look at it is this. It doesn't matter so much which is true since both of those outcomes are pretty astonishing.
    • odd man out wrote:

      Well put RR. As a scientist, I am trained and expected to keep an open mind, but base judgements on data, recognizing all the while that 100% of all scientists are humans and thus subject to the same shortcomings as all humans, a fact that scientists and "normal people" (aka non-scientists) are often guilty of forgetting or ignoring.

      It boils down to this. Either there are large undiscovered primates living all over the planet, or thousands of people over thousands of years provide consistent reports of seeing something that isn't there. They way I look at it is this. It doesn't matter so much which is true since both of those outcomes are pretty astonishing.
      It really doesn't matter to me, unless I was attacked by one. Then it would become very real and important. :)
      The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
      Richard Ewell, CSA General
    • Attended a talk tonight from a 'Bigfoot Researcher' who is part of a show on the Discovery Channel (wasn't that channel suppose to be about Science?).

      I was not there to rain on everyones fun, but I never heard more nonsense in one talk.

      But there was one nugget of wisdom that the speaker postulated of interest of the Hiking Community. He postulated that there was a concentration of Bigfoot sightings in Leominster, MA, because they were using the Massachusetts 'Midstate Trail' as part of some annual migration. I've been hiking the wrong trail! I thought all the smelly, hairy beasts were to be found on the AT, but now I know the Midstate Trail is where it's at!
      “Of all sad words of tongue or pen,
      the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”


      John Greenleaf Whittier
    • How did I miss this thread in 2021? Musta been busy at work or something...
      Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH

      "The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard