Of all the NATO countries, while in the navy, I've been to, Italy seemed very close to being a 3rd world country. Don't mean to bad talk Italy, but it was one of those countries where we were surrounded by kids asking/begging for money and much of the infrastructure was pretty bad looking. I know they're a fairly advanced country, but there are parts that seemed to be left behind.
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Corona Virus and the Trail
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Some sobering news if you think the vaccine is going to make 2021 a normal hiking year. (Don't know where those boxes came from.)
The vaccine news continues to seem very encouraging. Britain started its mass vaccination effort today, and the U.S. isn’t far behind.
But there is still one dark cloud hanging over the vaccines that many people don’t yet understand.
The vaccines will be much less effective at preventing death and illness in 2021 if they are introduced into a population where the coronavirus is raging — as is now the case in the U.S. That’s the central argument of a new paper in the journal Health Affairs. (One of the authors is Dr. Rochelle Walensky of Massachusetts General Hospital, whom President-elect Joe Biden has chosen to run the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)
An analogy may be helpful here. A vaccine is like a fire hose. A vaccine that’s 95 percent effective, as Moderna’s and Pfizer’s versions appear to be, is a powerful fire hose. But the size of a fire is still a bigger determinant of how much destruction occurs.
I asked the authors of the Health Affairs study to put their findings into terms that we nonscientists could understand, and they were kind enough to do so. The estimates are fairly stunning:
- At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about 200,000 confirmed new infections per day), a vaccine that is 95 percent effective — distributed at the expected pace — would still leave a terrible toll in the six months after it was introduced. Almost 10 million or so Americans would contract the virus, and more than 160,000 would die.
- This is far worse than the toll in an alternate universe in which the vaccine was only 50 percent effective but the U.S. had reduced the infection rate to its level in early September (about 35,000 new daily cases). In that scenario, the death toll in the next six months would be kept to about 60,000.
It’s worth pausing for a moment on this comparison, because it’s deeply counterintuitive. If the U.S. had maintained its infection rate from September and Moderna and Pfizer had announced this fall that their vaccines were only 50 percent effective, a lot of people would have freaked out.
But the reality we have is actually worse.
[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
How could this be? No vaccine can eliminate a pandemic immediately, just as no fire hose can put out a forest fire. While the vaccine is being distributed, the virus continues to do damage. “Bluntly stated, we’ll get out of this pandemic faster if we give the vaccine less work to do,” A. David Paltiel, one of the Health Affairs authors and a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, told me.
There is one positive way to look at this: Measures that reduce the virus’s spread — like mask-wearing, social distancing and rapid-result testing — can still have profound consequences. They can save more than 100,000 lives in coming months. 2,000 miler - At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about 200,000 confirmed new infections per day), a vaccine that is 95 percent effective — distributed at the expected pace — would still leave a terrible toll in the six months after it was introduced. Almost 10 million or so Americans would contract the virus, and more than 160,000 would die.
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max.patch wrote:
Some sobering news if you think the vaccine is going to make 2021 a normal hiking year. (Don't know where those boxes came from.)
The vaccine news continues to seem very encouraging. Britain started its mass vaccination effort today, and the U.S. isn’t far behind.
But there is still one dark cloud hanging over the vaccines that many people don’t yet understand.
The vaccines will be much less effective at preventing death and illness in 2021 if they are introduced into a population where the coronavirus is raging — as is now the case in the U.S. That’s the central argument of a new paper in the journal Health Affairs. (One of the authors is Dr. Rochelle Walensky of Massachusetts General Hospital, whom President-elect Joe Biden has chosen to run the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)
An analogy may be helpful here. A vaccine is like a fire hose. A vaccine that’s 95 percent effective, as Moderna’s and Pfizer’s versions appear to be, is a powerful fire hose. But the size of a fire is still a bigger determinant of how much destruction occurs.
I asked the authors of the Health Affairs study to put their findings into terms that we nonscientists could understand, and they were kind enough to do so. The estimates are fairly stunning:
- At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about 200,000 confirmed new infections per day), a vaccine that is 95 percent effective — distributed at the expected pace — would still leave a terrible toll in the six months after it was introduced. Almost 10 million or so Americans would contract the virus, and more than 160,000 would die.
- This is far worse than the toll in an alternate universe in which the vaccine was only 50 percent effective but the U.S. had reduced the infection rate to its level in early September (about 35,000 new daily cases). In that scenario, the death toll in the next six months would be kept to about 60,000.
It’s worth pausing for a moment on this comparison, because it’s deeply counterintuitive. If the U.S. had maintained its infection rate from September and Moderna and Pfizer had announced this fall that their vaccines were only 50 percent effective, a lot of people would have freaked out.
But the reality we have is actually worse.
[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
How could this be? No vaccine can eliminate a pandemic immediately, just as no fire hose can put out a forest fire. While the vaccine is being distributed, the virus continues to do damage. “Bluntly stated, we’ll get out of this pandemic faster if we give the vaccine less work to do,” A. David Paltiel, one of the Health Affairs authors and a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, told me.
There is one positive way to look at this: Measures that reduce the virus’s spread — like mask-wearing, social distancing and rapid-result testing — can still have profound consequences. They can save more than 100,000 lives in coming months.
- At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about 200,000 confirmed new infections per day), a vaccine that is 95 percent effective — distributed at the expected pace — would still leave a terrible toll in the six months after it was introduced. Almost 10 million or so Americans would contract the virus, and more than 160,000 would die.
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I think we're all just freaking out a little too much in this country. This virus has just become too political and people actually think we have it exceptionally bad in this country, but that's just not true. Look at the numbers in this link. If you compare Cases per 100k and Deaths per 100k, there are countries doing worse off than us. Just look at global news around the world, there are protests all over the place due to all the new lockdown measures govts are trying to enact.
But then you got another factor, again look at the numbers on the list in the link and ask yourself which countries can you really trust. India for example has a whole class of people they refer to as "untouchables". And there are many countries that have unofficial "untouchables". cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases/
Then what about the Russian vaccine? Putin reported back in August that they had a vaccine and even his daughter got a shot, showing how much confidence they had in this vaccine. bbc.com/news/world-europe-53735718
But now they're still suffering from surges and it seems like many are very skeptical of the Russian "vaccine". It'll be interesting to watch Russia as time goes on...
themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/08/…ics-arent-on-board-a72265
Excerpt:
“I hereby order the vaccination of all staff members,” said the document seen by The Moscow Times and signed by Elena Samyshina, the clinic’s chief doctor and a lawmaker on Moscow’s City Council.
While compulsory vaccination of frontline health, education and social workers is already underway, many of the medical professionals with priority access to Sputnik V are deeply sceptical of it.
The Moscow Times interviewed 12 medics based in the capital, most of whom expressed reluctance — or outright refusal — to take a vaccine that has not yet passed sufficient trials for international clinical approval and was greenlighted based on results from much smaller groups of volunteers than its Western counterparts.
Some said their managers told them they could be sacked for refusing the vaccine.
“We’re being offered the opportunity, or rather forced, to take it,” said Polina, a 23-year-old student doctor who works shifts at Covid hospitals.
“If I had a choice, I probably wouldn’t take it since I don’t trust the vaccine … but I guess I’ll have to do it.” -
roadrunner wrote:
I think we're all just freaking out a little too much in this country.
The laissez-faire approach to the virus taken by many -- with predictable results -- has put us in the horrific position we are in right now.2,000 miler -
LIhikers wrote:
max.patch wrote:
Some sobering news if you think the vaccine is going to make 2021 a normal hiking year. (Don't know where those boxes came from.)
The vaccine news continues to seem very encouraging. Britain started its mass vaccination effort today, and the U.S. isn’t far behind.
But there is still one dark cloud hanging over the vaccines that many people don’t yet understand.
The vaccines will be much less effective at preventing death and illness in 2021 if they are introduced into a population where the coronavirus is raging — as is now the case in the U.S. That’s the central argument of a new paper in the journal Health Affairs. (One of the authors is Dr. Rochelle Walensky of Massachusetts General Hospital, whom President-elect Joe Biden has chosen to run the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.)
An analogy may be helpful here. A vaccine is like a fire hose. A vaccine that’s 95 percent effective, as Moderna’s and Pfizer’s versions appear to be, is a powerful fire hose. But the size of a fire is still a bigger determinant of how much destruction occurs.
I asked the authors of the Health Affairs study to put their findings into terms that we nonscientists could understand, and they were kind enough to do so. The estimates are fairly stunning:
- At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about 200,000 confirmed new infections per day), a vaccine that is 95 percent effective — distributed at the expected pace — would still leave a terrible toll in the six months after it was introduced. Almost 10 million or so Americans would contract the virus, and more than 160,000 would die.
- This is far worse than the toll in an alternate universe in which the vaccine was only 50 percent effective but the U.S. had reduced the infection rate to its level in early September (about 35,000 new daily cases). In that scenario, the death toll in the next six months would be kept to about 60,000.
It’s worth pausing for a moment on this comparison, because it’s deeply counterintuitive. If the U.S. had maintained its infection rate from September and Moderna and Pfizer had announced this fall that their vaccines were only 50 percent effective, a lot of people would have freaked out.
But the reality we have is actually worse.
[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
How could this be? No vaccine can eliminate a pandemic immediately, just as no fire hose can put out a forest fire. While the vaccine is being distributed, the virus continues to do damage. “Bluntly stated, we’ll get out of this pandemic faster if we give the vaccine less work to do,” A. David Paltiel, one of the Health Affairs authors and a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, told me.
There is one positive way to look at this: Measures that reduce the virus’s spread — like mask-wearing, social distancing and rapid-result testing — can still have profound consequences. They can save more than 100,000 lives in coming months.
My hope is that 100% of the residents in my father-in-law's facility get vaccinated by the end of this month. That will allow my wife and I to rest a bit easier. It's been hell receiving an email each week listing the number of staff members that are infected. The residents don't understand that a pandemic is raging and don't have the capability of protecting themselves. Maybe having dementia during a pandemic is a good thing...
I may have inadvertently hosted a super-spreader event. Three people who attended my wedding have contracted Covid-19. Coincidence, or just a case of 32-year dormancy?
I'm not a fan of lockdowns, but it pisses me off when I'm wearing a mask and doing everything I can to stay 10' away from people in the store, only to have some maskless idjit walk up and decide to peruse the shelves right next to me. Would it be too much to carry a paintball gun and mark said idjits with the modern day equivalent of the Scarlet Letter?Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH
"The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard - At the current level of infection in the U.S. (about 200,000 confirmed new infections per day), a vaccine that is 95 percent effective — distributed at the expected pace — would still leave a terrible toll in the six months after it was introduced. Almost 10 million or so Americans would contract the virus, and more than 160,000 would die.
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max.patch wrote:
roadrunner wrote:
I think we're all just freaking out a little too much in this country.
The laissez-faire approach to the virus taken by many -- with predictable results -- has put us in the horrific position we are in right now.
Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH
"The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard -
StalkingTortoise,
Sorry to hear about your father. As you know dementia patients are at extremely high risk, so I understand your just concern. Add to that the 'lock down' rules and social isolation that has been so devastating to the health and well being of all nursing home residents. Hopefully these vaccines will soon allow residents like your father to get the care and social interactions they need and deserve.
There is a large 'independent living' complex near where I live. These are elderly who for the most part live independent lives in their own residences, but get some assistance with shopping and meals and such. I have several students who have work there. When Covid started the complex went into 'lock down' mode. The social isolation and anxiety of the situation has hit these people hard. My students describe a marked decline of the physical and mental health of so many that live there, who pre-Covid were leading enjoyable and often active lives.“Of all sad words of tongue or pen,
the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”
John Greenleaf Whittier -
IMScotty wrote:
StalkingTortoise,
Sorry to hear about your father. As you know dementia patients are at extremely high risk, so I understand your just concern. Add to that the 'lock down' rules and social isolation that has been so devastating to the health and well being of all nursing home residents. Hopefully these vaccines will soon allow residents like your father to get the care and social interactions they need and deserve.
There is a large 'independent living' complex near where I live. These are elderly who for the most part live independent lives in their own residences, but get some assistance with shopping and meals and such. I have several students who have work there. When Covid started the complex went into 'lock down' mode. The social isolation and anxiety of the situation has hit these people hard. My students describe a marked decline of the physical and mental health of so many that live there, who pre-Covid were leading enjoyable and often active lives.
Sometimes these unintended consequences are positive, but unfortunately more often they are negative.The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
Richard Ewell, CSA General -
max.patch wrote:
roadrunner wrote:
I think we're all just freaking out a little too much in this country.
The laissez-faire approach to the virus taken by many -- with predictable results -- has put us in the horrific position we are in right now.
I'm not sure what else the govts could have done. Although, I will admit that Trump did make it worse, simply by just being Trump. I do blame him for making masks a political subject. It's so political that the other side seems to think masks are more important than social distancing, that's dangerous. It's our lack of social distancing that's really causing these surges.
That's why I haven't gone home this year for the holidays. The one thing you could probably call laissez-faire WRT to how the govt is reacting is by setting a very bad example of telling people to not travel during this surge, but do exactly the opposite. One politician even had the gall to preach about no travel, while on vacation in Mexico. There are many other examples of this hypocrisy that just slaps you in the face.
And then on top of that, they don't give people relief, instead they force lockdowns, but selectively. Hollywood elites, which have politicians in their pockets can stay open but hard working people can't...again many examples, but here's just one and there is a video in the link, which is infuriating.
independent.co.uk/news/world/a…m-set-viral-b1767069.html
Excerpt:
Indoor dining has been banned for months in Los Angeles County, but health officials took it a step further and banned outdoor dining on November 25, the day before Thanksgiving, “to reduce the possibility for crowding and the potential for exposure.”
Ms Marsden was angered to discover that the caterers for a film crew - shooting the NBC crime drama Good Girls - had set up an almost identical arrangement to her closed restaurant a few feet away.
"I am losing everything," she said, struggling to maintain her composure.
"Everything I own is being taken away from me. And they set up a movie company right next to my patio, which is right here." -
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A club owner in Columbus OH decided it would be a good idea to hold an indoor 500-person concert.
A bunch of performers decided it would be a good idea to perform in an indoor setting for 500 guests.
500 people decided that the best thing they could do for themselves was to attend an indoor concert, put their masks in their pockets, share bottles as they were passed around, and stay in a crowded setting for hours. During a pandemic.
dispatch.com/story/news/2020/1…rarily-closed/6492839002/Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH
"The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard -
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LIhikers wrote:
I'm standing on line right now to get a covid test as someone I work with tested positive and management told us all to go home and don't come back until we test negative.
Prayers for a healthy outcome!2,000 miler -
max.patch wrote:
LIhikers wrote:
I'm standing on line right now to get a covid test as someone I work with tested positive and management told us all to go home and don't come back until we test negative.
Prayers for a healthy outcome!
But I'll take all the prayers I can get anyway -
LIhikers wrote:
max.patch wrote:
LIhikers wrote:
I'm standing on line right now to get a covid test as someone I work with tested positive and management told us all to go home and don't come back until we test negative.
The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
Richard Ewell, CSA General -
Been there. The woman who cleans our house every other week came the day before Thanksgiving and tested positive the day after. So we considered ourselves exposed. After 5 days I qualified for a test from work (appointment, no waiting) and my wife did the free drive through test offered by the county. After 5 more days with no symptoms and a negative test, we were cleared. Since I'm working from home and wife is retired, it was a non issue for us.
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LIhikers wrote:
I'm standing on line right now to get a covid test as someone I work with tested positive and management told us all to go home and don't come back until we test negative.
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Things are hot out there. Of the 30 students I am meeting this semester for labs, five have tested positive so far. I only meet with 7 or 8 at a time due to spacing requirements in the lab. I do each lab 4 X over two days with the different groups. I assume they are getting it outside of my class, but I cannot really say for sure.“Of all sad words of tongue or pen,
the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”
John Greenleaf Whittier -
My brother in law was at our house working on HIS mothers bathroom, 2 weeks ago. He tested positive this past week We went to get tested Saturday, we are negative, Ov went again Thursday to be tested, cause she has a sinus headache ..........Cheesecake> Ramen
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CoachLou wrote:
My brother in law was at our house working on HIS mothers bathroom, 2 weeks ago. He tested positive this past week We went to get tested Saturday, we are negative, Ov went again Thursday to be tested, cause she has a sinus headache ..........
“Of all sad words of tongue or pen,
the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”
John Greenleaf Whittier -
IMScotty wrote:
Things are hot out there. Of the 30 students I am meeting this semester for labs, five have tested positive so far. I only meet with 7 or 8 at a time due to spacing requirements in the lab. I do each lab 4 X over two days with the different groups. I assume they are getting it outside of my class, but I cannot really say for sure.
The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
Richard Ewell, CSA General -
IMScotty wrote:
Things are hot out there. Of the 30 students I am meeting this semester for labs, five have tested positive so far. I only meet with 7 or 8 at a time due to spacing requirements in the lab. I do each lab 4 X over two days with the different groups. I assume they are getting it outside of my class, but I cannot really say for sure.
Astro wrote:
IMScotty wrote:
Things are hot out there. Of the 30 students I am meeting this semester for labs, five have tested positive so far. I only meet with 7 or 8 at a time due to spacing requirements in the lab. I do each lab 4 X over two days with the different groups. I assume they are getting it outside of my class, but I cannot really say for sure.
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Given what we know -- and more importantly, don't know -- about the virus I don't think it's possible to make a blanket statement that "our labs (or whatever) are not responsible for spreading the virus" that one can count on being totally accurate.
Remember, we are talking about an indoor setting and masks -- while very helpful in reducing viral particals -- don't stop 100% of them.
Given we are talking about college students, yeah, they probably are contracting it elsewhere.2,000 miler -
In Georgia, new sheriffs are required to take a 3 week training course. We have 36 new sheriffs; 7 thus far have tested positive.
The course took Thanksgiving week off. On the Friday before this, one of the sheriffs at the course felt "off." He got tested over the break and tested positive. Because he tested positve over the break, they resumed the course after Thanksgiving. Hindsight is 20/20 -- but it's obvious wrong decisions were made.2,000 miler -
CoachLou wrote:
My brother in law was at our house working on HIS mothers bathroom, 2 weeks ago. He tested positive this past week We went to get tested Saturday, we are negative, Ov went again Thursday to be tested, cause she has a sinus headache ..........
It's crazy all the different symptoms different people present. Our sister in law is + with flu like symptoms with lung issues. She's also the lunch lady at the elementary school. -
Dmax wrote:
CoachLou wrote:
My brother in law was at our house working on HIS mothers bathroom, 2 weeks ago. He tested positive this past week We went to get tested Saturday, we are negative, Ov went again Thursday to be tested, cause she has a sinus headache ..........
Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH
"The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard -
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The worst thing I remember about the test I took this summer was that it was like the strep throat test, except this time you are the one twisting that stick up your nose.The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
Richard Ewell, CSA General -
Astro wrote:
The worst thing I remember about the test I took this summer was that it was like the strep throat test, except this time you are the one twisting that stick up your nose.
Cheesecake> Ramen -
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Meh... I don't envision any Bond villains using a Covid swab as a form of torture.
During my drive-up test, I closed my eyes, put a death-grip on the steering wheel, and thought how less invasive the swabbing was than the pending colonoscopy.Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH
"The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard -
StalkingTortoise wrote:
Meh... I don't envision any Bond villains using a Covid swab as a form of torture.
During my drive-up test, I closed my eyes, put a death-grip on the steering wheel, and thought how less invasive the swabbing was than the pending colonoscopy.
Now the day before, that's no fun.The road to glory cannot be followed with much baggage.
Richard Ewell, CSA General -
Got my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, hallelujah!
i was so worried that I would get sick and not be allowed to get it. I took care of Covid patients all weekend and the nurse who worked with me tested positive and is sick. Tennessee is the worst state right now.
I’ll get the second dose in three weeks. I’m so very grateful to the scientists and researchers who have worked hard to develop this.Lost in the right direction.The post was edited 2 times, last by Traffic Jam ().
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My arm is getting sore. I thought carefully about which arm to use...bow arm or fingering arm? Went with the bow arm as my left arm/shoulder/neck work harder when playing.
First world problems?Lost in the right direction. -
Traffic Jam wrote:
My arm is getting sore. I thought carefully about which arm to use...bow arm or fingering arm? Went with the bow arm as my left arm/shoulder/neck work harder when playing.
First world problems?
My employer told us that once our vaccine is approved for emergency use, employees will be in the first wave as long as other vaccines are already being distributed to the general public in each geographic area. So it sounds like we will have on-site vaccination clinics if the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine supply has already taken care of the first wave in Cincinnati. Immediate family members are eligible as well.
Efficacy findings are expected in January and the hope is that the emergency authorization will be in place by early February.Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH
"The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard -
I fall asleep on my left side, so I get the flu shot (and will the Covid) in my RIGHT arm, which is, well mostly, predominant (I'm about 80 percent ambidextrous). But what I found some years back about the flu shot, get the shot. Then in the evening say around 8 PM, go to the gym and work out. Be sure to do as many "arm" machines as I can. Usually the next morning in the shower, I wash my shoulder and then go "hey, that's just slightly sore from the shot". Work out again that day and that put an end to any soreness. YMMV.Pirating – Corporate Takeover without the paperwork
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IMScotty wrote:
StalkingTortoise,
Sorry to hear about your father. As you know dementia patients are at extremely high risk, so I understand your just concern. Add to that the 'lock down' rules and social isolation that has been so devastating to the health and well being of all nursing home residents. Hopefully these vaccines will soon allow residents like your father to get the care and social interactions they need and deserve.
There is a large 'independent living' complex near where I live. These are elderly who for the most part live independent lives in their own residences, but get some assistance with shopping and meals and such. I have several students who have work there. When Covid started the complex went into 'lock down' mode. The social isolation and anxiety of the situation has hit these people hard. My students describe a marked decline of the physical and mental health of so many that live there, who pre-Covid were leading enjoyable and often active lives.
-
In my father-in-law's case, dementia is a godsend during the last nine months. If he understood how long he has been isolated, his health would have certainly declined. The professionals use the term "therapeutic fibbing" - tell your loved ones what they need to hear, not necessarily the full truth.
He knows that there is a 'bad flu' going around, but he has no idea that he's been in lockdown since March 13th. We told him that we'll be able to get together soon after he gets his 'flu shot' next week. No sense explaining the booster shot a few weeks later or the week afterwards to build immunity. Just hearing it would soon be over seemed to curb his anxiety. That, and the medication...
Trillium, I can't imagine how difficult it was for your Auntie and your family to deal with the decline while being helpless to intervene. My biggest hope is that my wife gets to hug her Dad again before he passes.Trudgin' along the AT since 2003. Completed Sections: Springer Mountain to Clingmans Dome and Max Patch NC to Gorham NH
"The days I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations...those are pretty good days." Ray Wylie Hubbard
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